Barrels, bombs and bonds. The global framework that was set in place at the end of World War II has been under increasing pressure for decades and is now breaking down. The New Martial Plan is about navigating the shifting security landscape and is the sequel to The New Joule Order, which focused on the forces shaping energy markets.
Security in Europe is paramount. As the United States retreats from international cooperation, the world is getting more dangerous and more expensive. As Russia has become more aggressive, Europe is the region most exposed and vulnerable to this retreat and needs to invest immediately in defense. We believe we are beginning a structural capital rotation towards Europe, attracted by valuations, enabled by fiscal capacity, and compelled by strategic imperatives.
A European private capital renaissance. US private capital—venture capital (VC) and private equity (PE)—developed out of the US military-industrial complex, giving rise to Silicon Valley, the internet, and AI. Private capital is a highly effective vehicle to coordinate investment in essential public goods in partnership with governments. The direct investment in defense and adjacent infrastructure could approach an incremental €9tn over the next decade if all spending proposals under discussion were swiftly and fully realized. This is comparable to the China boom and the longer-term benefits could be even more significant.
About Jeff Currie
CHIEF STRATEGY OFFICER OF ENERGY PATHWAYS AT HIDOPLANET
Mr. Currie focuses on conducting analysis of commodity market trends and the evaluation of new investment opportunities across energy markets and the commodity supply chain central to the energy transition.
Mr. Currie is the former Global Head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, where he helped to build their commodities business. During his nearly three decades at the firm, he became one of the leading commodity market strategists on Wall Street, known for advising clients through the commodity “super cycle” of the 2000s, the shale supply shock of the 2010s, and most recently the twin shocks of the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war.
Mr. Currie is a graduate of Pepperdine University and holds a Master of Arts Economics and a PhD in Economics from the University of Chicago.
About James Gutman
STRATEGIST
Mr. Gutman focuses on analyzing the economics of energy and related commodity markets.
Over nearly three decades, he has been responsible for Ford Motor Company’s commodities hedging, Goldman Sachs’ metals and agricultural commodities research, and has managed a hedge fund.
Mr. Gutman is a graduate of Tulane University and holds Masters degrees in both Political Science and in Economics, as well as a PhD in Political Science, all from the University of Michigan.